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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
Australian federal election, 2022
Division of Monash, Victoria
Named for: General Sir John Monash (1865-1931), World War I military commander
Eastern Victoria: Korrumburra, Leongatha, Moe, Wonthaggi, Warragul
State seats: All of
Narracan, parts of
Bass and
Gippsland South
Local government areas: All of
Bass Coast,
Baw Baw and
South Gippsland, parts of
Latrobe
Borders with:
Casey,
Gippsland,
Indi and
La Trobe
Enrolment at 2019 election: 112,516
Enrolment at 2022 election: 111,241 (-01.1)
1999 republic referendum: No 63.6
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 62.7
Sitting member: Russell Broadbent (Liberal):
Elected (for Corinella) 1990. Defeated 1993. Elected (for McMillan) 1996. Defeated 1998. Elected 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016,
(for Monash) 2019
2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.8% *
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.4% *
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 11.8% *
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 6.6% *
2019 Liberal majority over Labor: 7.4%
2019 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 6.9%
* as McMillan
Liberal two-party vote 1983-2019
Status: Marginal Liberal
Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Leongatha South (77.2), Arawata (76.2), Nerrena (75.6), Darnum (75.4),
Mount Eccles (74.4)
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Moe Central (61.1), Wonthaggi (58.3), Cowes (58.0), Newborough East (57.3),
Newhaven (56.8)
2019 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Mat Morgan Australian Greens |
2. Russell Broadbent Liberal Party |
3. Deb Leonard Voices of Monash |
4. Allan Hicken Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
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5. David Welsh Australian Federation Party |
6. Jessica O'Donnell Australian Labor Party |
7. Meg Edwards Liberal Democrats |
8. Christine McShane United Australia Party |
Candidate websites:
Russell Broadbent
Meg Edwards
Allan Hicken
Deb Leonard
Christine McShane
Mat Morgan
Jessica O'Donnell
David Welsh
Division of Monash
Monash was created by the 2018 redistribution, when the seat of
McMillan, which was created in 1949, was renamed.*
The seat has always been located in the semi-rural West Gippsland region of Victoria. Although for most of its history it included the coal-mining
towns of the Latrobe Valley, it was a safe Liberal seat until the 1970s, and was not won by Labor until 1980. Since then it
has been a marginal seat, changing hands several times, although since 2013 it has been reasonably safe for the Liberal incumbent.
Socially, the seat consists of two parts. The Latrobe Valley (most of which is now in the seat of Gippsland) has declining
working-class towns like Moe, with low-income families and high unemployment. South Gippsland is a dairy farming area,
with its coastal areas being colonised by urban exiles. Labor's remaining strength is in the Moe-Newborough area and in
the old coal-mining town of Wonthaggi, while the Liberals dominate the rural areas. The Princes Highway towns of Drouin and
Warragul are suburbanising.
Between 1980 and 2004, McMillan changed hands six times, and was one of the most hotly-contested seats in the country.
Russell Broadbent first won it in 1996, but was defeated in 1998 by
Christian Zahra, who became the youngest member of the
House. Zahra retained the seat in 2001, but was greatly disadvantaged by the 2004 redistribution, which moved
the Labor stronghold of Morwell into Gippsland. Broadbent then regained the seat and has held it fairly easily since,
although there was a sizeable swing to Labor in 2016.
Russell Broadbent, Liberal MP for
Corinella from 1990 to 1993 and for McMillan from 1996 to 1998 and from 2004, was a
local retailer and Pakenham Shire Councillor before his election. He has never left the back bench, but has a fairly
high profile because of his dissent from some Liberal policies, notably on immigration. Over 30 years he has
accumulated a large personal vote which partly explains the substantial Liberal margin in what was once a very marginal
seat. He is now 70 and it is not clear if he intends to run again in 2022.
The 2018 redistribution removed the dormitory suburb of Pakenham from the renamed seat, while adding semi-rural
territory on the east coast of Western Port, plus Phillip Island. This slightly increased the Liberal majority. The 2021
redistribution removed some semi-rural areas aroung Tynong and Lang Lang, slightly weakening the seat for the Liberals.
The Labor candidate is again Jessica O'Donnell, a Baw Baw Shire councillor. The Greens candidate is Mat Morgan, a student.
* The renaming followed a campaign to draw attention to
Angus McMillan's role in the massacres of Indigenous people
in South Gippsland in the 1840s.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,163 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 18.7% (Australia 15.8%)
Australian born: 77.6% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 9.1% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 20.7% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 35.5% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 12.4% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 28.1% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 31.1% (Australia 22.9%)
Employed in agriculture: 8.8% (Australia 3.3%)
Paying a mortgage: 37.5% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 24.1% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 30.4% (Australia 32.8%)
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