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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2022
Division of Warringah, New South Wales
Named for: Sydney region of Warringah (Indigenous name for Middle Harbour, recorded by James Larmer in 1856 as "Warrin-ga")
Northern Sydney: Balgowlah, Curl Curl, Killarney Heights, Manly, Mosman
State seats: All of
Manly, parts of
North Shore and
Wakehurst
Local government areas: All of
Mosman, parts of
North Sydney and
Northern Beaches
Borders with:
Bradfield,
Mackellar and
North Sydney
Enrolment at 2019 election: 105,077
Enrolment at 2022 election: 105,355 (+00.3)
1999 republic referendum: Yes 54.4
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 75.0
Sitting member: Zali Steggall OAM (Independent):
Elected 2019
2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 9.5%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 13.1%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 15.4%
2016 Liberal majority over Greens: 11.6%
2019 Independent majority over Liberal: 7.2%
2019 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 2.1%
Liberal two-party vote 1983-2019
Status: Marginal Independent versus Liberal
Best Independent booths, two-party vote: Manly (68.2) Many West (68.1), Fairlight (65.4),
Neutral Bay East (65.3), Manly Eastern Hill (65.2)
Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Forrestville East (54.7), Frenchs Forest (54.5),
Forrestville (52.9), Frenchs Forest PPVC (51.4), Chatswood PPVC (50.3)
2019 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Stephen Tripp
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
2. Zali Steggall
Independent |
3. Andrew Robertson
United Australia Party |
4. Kristyn Glanville
Australian Greens |
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5. Katherine Deves
Liberal Party |
6. David Mickelburgh
Australian Labor Party |
7. Kate Paterson
Animal Justice Party |
Candidate websites:
Katherine Deves
Kristyn Glanville
David Mickelburgh
Kate Paterson
Andrew Robertson
Zali Steggall
Dajen Tinkler
Stephen Tripp
Division of Warringah
Warringah was created in 1922, covering the eastern part of Sydney's North Shore, based on Manly. Subsequent
redistributions have reduced the seat in size without changing its social or political character. It is the
wealthiest electorate in Australia, with a very high median income level, a high proportion of graduates and a high proportion
of people in professional and managerial occupations.
Labor has never come close to winning Warringah, but the Manly area does have a history of support for independents,
including
Percy Spender, who won Warringah as an independent in 1937 before becoming a Cabinet minister under Menzies,
and
Peter Macdonald, an independent state MP, who came second in Warringah in 2001.
Tony Abbott was a journalist for The Bulletin and head of Australians for Constitutional Monarchy before his election in 1994.
He was a protege of Prime Minister
John Howard and was a Cabinet minister
from 2001. In December 2009 he resigned from the opposition front bench in protest at
Malcolm Turnbull's agreement to
support the Rudd Government's emission trading scheme. This caused a crisis in the Liberal Party which ended with Abbott
seizing the leadership.
At the 2010 election Abbott performed well enough to force Labor into minority government, and his relentless methods of
opposition helped him lead the Coalition to victory in 2013. As Prime Minister, however, his dogmatic style, harsh
economic policies and quixotic actions such as restoring knighthoods led to a rapid decline in his standing with the
public, reflected in poor polls. More importantly, the domineering behaviour of his chief of staff,
Peta Credlin,
alienated his senior colleagues. In September 2015 Turnbull succeeded in regaining the leadership, making Abbott the
third successive PM to be deposed by their own party.
Abbott spent the next three years sabotaging Turnbull in every way he could short of open rebellion. He did not
aspire to regain the Liberal leadership for himself, but was determined to make sure Turnbull was deposed, and hoped he
would return to Cabinet under a more conservative successor. He got his way when Turnbull was forced to resign in August
2018, but his preferred leader,
Peter Dutton, was defeated by
Scott Morrison, and Abbott remained on the backbench.
Abbott's behaviour and his unbending conservative views alienated many voters in Warringah, which like
most affluent urban areas is increasingly liberal on many issues - it voted 75% yes in the marriage equality survey. His
defeat by an independent candidate was nevertheless one of the great shocks of the 2019 election.
Zali Steggall, independent MP for Warringah since 2029, was a noted Olympic skier, winning a bronze medal at the Nagano
Winter Olympics in 1998 and a gold medal at the World Ski Championships in 1999. She was born in Manly and returned to practise
law there after her skiing career ended in 2002. She campaigned strongly on climate change, about which Abbott is a denialist.
Although she won comfortably in 2019, it remains to be seen whether she can maintain her support in 2022 without Abbott
to run against.
The Liberal candidate, chosen by Prime Minister Morrison after prolonged delays, is Katherine Deves, a lawyer and a co-founder of
Save Women's Sport Australasia, a group which campaigns against trans-women competing in women's sport. The
Labor candidate is David Mickelburgh, a legal professional. The Greens candidate is Kristyn Glanville, an environmental lawyer and PhD candidate.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $2,384 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 15.0% (Australia 15.8%)
Australian born: 61.1% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 19.9% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 24.0% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 35.5% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 42.3% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 55.7% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 14.8% (Australia 22.9%)
Paying a mortgage: 30.7% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 34.6% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 35.9% (Australia 32.8%)
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