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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2022
Division of Blair, Queensland
Named for: Harold Blair (1924-76), Indigenous singer and political
activist
West of Brisbane: Brassall, Ipswich, Karalee, Raceview, Rosewood
State seats: All of
Ipswich and
Ipswich West, parts of
Bundamba,
Lockyer,
Moggill,
Nanango and
Scenic Rim
Local government areas: All of
Somerset, parts of
Brisbane and
Ipswich
Borders with:
Dickson,
Fairfax,
Fisher,
Longman,
Maranoa,
Oxley,
Ryan,
Wide Bay and
Wright
Enrolment at 2019 election: 113,520
Enrolment at 2022 election: 126,470 (+11.4)
1999 republic referendum: No 74.6
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 60.0
Sitting member: Hon Shayne Neumann (Labor):
Elected 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 4.5%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 4.2%
2013 Labor majority over Liberal: 5.3%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal: 9.1%
2019 Labor majority over Liberal: 1.2%
Liberal two-party vote 1983-2019
Status: Very marginal Labor
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: One Mile (65.8), Riverview (65.4), Redbank Plains (62.7), Collingwood Park South (62.0),
North Booval (62.0)
Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Mount Kilcoy (70.5), Grandchester (66.9), Pine Mountain (65.4), Kilcoy (64.9),
Haigslea (62.7)
2019 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Danielle Mutton
Australian Greens |
2. Michelle Jaques
Liberal Democrats |
3. Quinton Cunningham
United Australia Party |
4. Liz Suduk
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
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5. Hon Shayne Neumann
Australian Labor Party |
6. Dr Maria Pitman
Australian Values Party |
7. Angela Lowery
Animal Justice Party |
8. Sam Biggins
Liberal Party |
Candidate websites:
Sam Biggins
Quinton Cunningham
Michelle Jaques
Danielle Mutton
Hon Shayne Neumann
Dr Maria Pitman
Liz Suduk
Division of Blair
Blair was created in 1998, from parts of the old seats of
Oxley and
Longman. It was then a largely rural seat which included
parts of western Ipswich. Like many rural or semi-rural seats, it combined a relatively low income level with a very
low level of non English speaking households, a combination which usually indicates conservatism. Blair
attracted national attention at the 1998 election because
Pauline Hanson, the extreme right-wing member for Oxley,
elected as a disendorsed Liberal in 1996, stood in Blair for her new One Nation party. She topped the poll on
primaries, but was defeated on preferences by the Liberal
Cameron Thompson.
Successive redistributions have put all of Ipswich into Blair, reducing its rural component and making it weaker for the Liberals.
Labor finally won the seat in
2007, and have held it since. Most votes in Blair are now cast in Ipswich, whose economy was formerly based on coal-mining and
which retains a strong manufacturing base. The Western Corridor area between Ipswich and Brisbane is one of the fastest-growing
areas in Australia. The 2018 redistribution added some Liberal-inclined territory, slightly reducing the
Labor majority. Labor usually wins every booth in Ipswich, leaving the Liberals with only the rural towns such as Kilcoy
to the north.
Shayne Neumann, Labor MP for Blair since 2007, was an Ipswich lawyer before entering politics. He was a parliamentary
secretary in the last year of the Rudd-Gillard Government, and is now Shadow Minister for Veterans' Affairs and Defence Personnel.
Neumann survived the heavy swing against Labor in Queensland in 2010, and won swings towards him in 2013
and 2016. But in 2019 he had a narrow escape when Blair saw a 6.9% swing to the Liberals, part of the Labor rout in
Queensland, which was particularly severe in blue-collar centres like Ipswich. Some Ipswich booths saw swings as high as 11.7%.
The Liberal candidate is Sam Biggins, director of investment services at Colliers International, an investment firm.
The Greens candidate is Danielle Mutton, an organiser with the Finance Sector Union.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,303 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 13.1% (Australia 15.8%)
Indigenous: 4.5% (Australia 2.8%)
Australian born: 77.8% (Australia 66.7%)
Ancestry: German 6.7%
Non-English-speaking households: 8.4% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 19.3% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 29.3% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 10.6% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 23.2% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 28.6% (Australia 22.9%)
Employed in agriculture: 2.6% (Australia 3.3%)
Paying a mortgage: 34.4% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 37.1% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 32.6% (Australia 32.8%)
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