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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2022
Division of Flinders, Victoria
Named for: Captain Matthew Flinders (1774-1814), navigator and
explorer
South-east of Melbourne: Dromana, Hastings, Mornington, Mount Martha, Portsea
State seats: All of
Nepean, parts of
Hastings and
Mornington
Local government areas: Parts of
Mornington Peninsula
Borders with:
Dunkley and
Holt
Enrolment at 2019 election: 110,729
Enrolment at 2022 election: 114,542 (+03.5)
1999 republic referendum: No 58.1
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 70.0
Sitting member: Hon Greg Hunt (Liberal):
Elected 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019. Retiring 2022
2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 8.3%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 9.1%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 11.8%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 7.8%
2019 Liberal majority over Labor: 5.5%
2019 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 5.5%
Liberal two-party vote 1983-2019
Status: Marginal Liberal
Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Portsea (69.3), Moorooduc (63.6), Sorrento (60.8),
Mornington PPVC (60.9), Mt Martha Nepean (60.3)
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: St Andrews Beach (63.7), Shoreham (60.9), Bittern (57.8),
Rosebud West (57.7), Tanti Park (57.3)
2019 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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 |
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1. Alex van der End
United Australia party |
2. Cyndi Marr
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
3. Chrysten Abraham
Liberal Democrats |
4. Zoe McKenzie
Liberal Party |
5. Jefferson Earl
Australian Federation Party |
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 |
 |
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6. Colin Lane
Australian Greens |
7. Sarah Russell
Voices of Mornington Peninsula |
8. Surbhi Snowball
Australian Labor Party |
9. Despi O'Connor
Independent |
10. Pamela Engelander
Animal Justice Party |
Candidate websites:
Jefferson Earl
Pamela Engelander
Colin Lane
Zoe McKenzie
Cyndi Marr
Despi O'Connor
Sarah Russell
Surbhi Snowball
Alex van der End
Division of Flinders
Flinders has existed since Federation, and has always occupied the Mornington Peninsula area south of Melbourne.
At various times it has also taken in large areas of the southern and eastern suburbs of Melbourne and parts of
western Gippsland. On its current boundaries most of its voters live in the tourism and retirement towns on the
Peninsula, from Mornington to Portsea. This explains both the electorate's low median family income and its high
proportion of over-65s. The seat also has a low proportion of university graduates and people in professional and
managerial employment, and a very low proportion of non English-speaking households.
In the 1970s and '80s, when the seat included the Labor-voting area of Frankston, it was highly marginal. But Labor
has won Flinders only three times, including the famous upset in 1929 when Nationalist Prime Minister
Stanley Bruce was defeated by Labor's
Jack Holloway. Labor last won the seat in 1983. Apart from Bruce, eminent members for Flinders have included Liberal
Cabinet ministers
Sir Phillip Lynch and
Peter Reith. The seat has not been altered by the 2021 redistribution.
Greg Hunt, Liberal MP for Flinders since 2001, the son of longtime state minister
Alan Hunt, is a lawyer, and
was an adviser to
Alexander Downer before his election. He was a parliamentary secretary in the last term of the
Howard Government, on the opposition frontbench from 2007 to 2013, and in January 2017 became Minister for Health. In August
2018 he resigned from the ministry and supported
Peter Dutton's unsuccessful challenge to Prime Minister
Malcolm Turnbull.
He then contested the ballot for Deputy Leader but polled poorly. Prime Minister
Scott Morrison re-appointed him Minister for
Health. In this portfolio he has led the government's much-criticised response to the COVID pandemic. In December
2021 he announced his retirement. The new Liberal candidate is Zoe McKenzie, an industrial relations lawyer and former ministerial
adviser. The Labor candidate is Surbhi Snowball, a Mauritius-born designer and businesswoman. The Greens candidate is Colin Lane, whose
occupation is not stated. Sarah Russell will run as an independent, backed by the "Voices
of Mornington Peninsula" group. Mornington Peninsula Shire Councillor Despi O'Connor, who missed the Voices group's endorsement,
will also run as an independent.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,224 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 23.3% (Australia 15.8%)
Australian born: 77.0% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 7.5% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 20.0% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 39.1% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 14.1% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 29.3% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 34.6% (Australia 22.9%)
Employed in agriculture: 3.6% (Australia 3.3%)
Paying a mortgage: 36.4% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 20.9% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 29.3% (Australia 32.8%)
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