|
|
|
|
| Adam Carr's Election Archive
|
Australian federal election, 2022
Division of Isaacs, Victoria
Named for: Rt Hon Sir Isaac Isaacs (1855-1948), Vic MP 1892-1901,
federal MP 1901-06, judge, Governor-General 1931-36 (first Australian
Governor-General)
Southern Melbourne: Chelsea, Keysborough, Mentone, Moorabbin, Mordialloc
State seats: All of
Mordialloc, parts of
Bentleigh,
Carrum,
Clarinda,
Cranbourne,
Dandenong and
Keysborough
Local government areas: Parts of
Greater Dandenong and
Kingston
Borders with:
Bruce,
Dunkley,
Goldstein,
Holt and
Hotham
Enrolment at 2019 election: 108,325
Enrolment at 2022 election: 110,797 (+02.3)
1999 republic referendum: No 53.3
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 65.3
Sitting member: Hon Mark Dreyfus (Labor):
Elected 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 7.7%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 11.0%
2013 Labor majority over Liberal: 3.9%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal 5.8%
2019 Labor majority over Liberal: 6.4%
2019 notional Labor majority over Liberal: 6.4%
Liberal two-party vote 1983-2019
Status: Marginal Labor
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Chandler (69.3), Keysborough South (68.7), Aspendale Central (68.5),
Chelsea Central (68.1), Chelsea Heights (64.6)
Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Patterson Lakes (54.0), Mordialloc PPVC (51.8), Dingley Village (46.5),
Moorabbin PPVC (47.6), Kingswood (46.1)
2019 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
 |
 |
 |
 |
1. Boris Sokiransky
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
2. Hon Mark Dreyfus
Australian Labor Party |
3. Sarah O'Donnell
Liberal Democrats |
4. Robbie Beaton
Liberal Party |
 |
 |
 |
5. Alex Breskin
Australian Greens |
6. Alix Livingstone
Animal Justice Party |
7. Scott McCamish
United Australia Party |
Candidate websites:
Robbie Beaton
Alex Breskin
Hon Mark Dreyfus
Alix Livingstone
Scott McCamish
Sarah O'Donnell
Boris Sokiransky
Division of Isaacs
Isaacs was created in 1969 (there was an older seat of
Isaacs in another part of Melbourne), running down the eastern
shore of Port Phillip, and has always been a marginal seat. Although Isaacs has a fairly high level of median family
income, it also has a high proportion of people employed in manufacturing, and a low proportion of people in professional
and managerial occupations. This would suggest an electorate with a large number of skilled workers, and indeed 30% of its
residents work in manufacturing and construction.
Isaacs is also a mortgage belt seat, with a high level of families with dependent children and of dwellings being purchased.
The electorate's fear of interest rate rises partly explains the large swing against Labor in 2004, while it was the fear
among manufacturing workers of the Howard Government's WorkChoices policy that produced a big swing back to Labor in
2007.
Greg Wilton won Isaacs for Labor in 1996, against the trend of the election. Following his death in 2000,
Ann Corcoran won
the subsequent by-election. She was an inconspicuous member, and in 2007 the Labor Right faction engineered a move against
her that installed Mark Dreyfus QC as the Labor candidate.
Mark Dreyfus, MP for Isaacs since 2007, and the first member for Isaacs to be a minister, was a leading Melbourne barrister,
and also an adviser to several Labor state ministers, before his election. He was appointed a parliamentary secretary in
2010 and became Attorney-General and Special Minister of State in early 2013. He is now Shadow Attorney-General and Shadow Minister
for Constitutional Reform. Although there was a big swing to the Liberals in 2013, Dreyfus increased his majority in 2016 and again in 2019.
The 2018 redistribution removed two blocks of strong Labor territory, around Carrum Downs in the south and Noble Park
in the north, replacing them with marginal territory around Heatherton and Moorabbin, formerly in Hotham. This cut the Labor
margin slightly. The 2021 redistribution has made only minor changes. The Liberal candidate is Robbie Beaton, a hotelier.
The Greens candidate is Alex Breskin, a software consultant.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,504 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 14.6% (Australia 15.8%)
Australian born: 60.9% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 30.2% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 24.1% (Australia 22.6%)
Buddhist 5.3%
No religion 30.2% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 20.9% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 33.4% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 30.0% (Australia 22.9%)
Paying a mortgage: 40.7% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 26.0% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 37.3% (Australia 32.8%)
Back to main page
|
|
