Psephos - Adam Carr's Election Archive

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Australian federal election, 2 July 2016
Senate election, Queensland

(See NSW / Vic / WA / SA / Tas / ACT / NT)

Senators up for election in 2019:

  • Senator Fraser Anning (Conservative National Party) (elected as One Nation)
  • Senator Chris Ketter (Labor)
  • Senator Hon Ian Macdonald (Liberal)
  • Senator Claire Moore (Labor), retiring
  • Senator Barry O'Sullivan (Nationals), retiring
  • Senator Larissa Waters (Greens)
  • Senators serving until 2022:

  • Senator Hon Matthew Canavan (Nationals)
  • Senator Anthony Chisholm (Labor)
  • Senator Pauline Hanson (One Nation)
  • Senator Hon James McGrath (Liberal)
  • Senator Amanda Stoker (Liberal)
  • Senator Murray Watt (Labor)
  • Comment:

    At the 2016 election, the Liberal National Party polled 2.47 half-Senate quotas, while Labor polled 1.85 half-Senate quotas - Labor's worst result in any state. The LNP will certainly win two seats, and Labor will almost certainly do so. The Greens polled 0.48 half-Senate quotas in 2016, which might have seen Senator Larissa Waters defeated if it had been a half-Senate election. One Nation, with a ticket headed by Pauline Hanson, polled 0.64 half-Senate quotas. With the preferences of the various smaller far-right parties, that would probably be enough to win a seat at a half-Senate election, although without the Hanson name One Nation may not poll so well this time.

    The LNP has dropped both Senator Ian Macdonald (Lib) and Senator Barry O'Sullivan (Nat), replacing them with Paul Scarr (Lib) and Susan McDonald (Nat). Macdonald has been a Senator since 1991 and cannot have seriously expected another term, but O'Sullivan was only elected in 2014 and is a popular figure in the Nationals - why he was dropped is a mystery and this may prove costly to the LNP.

    Laborís Senator Claire Moore (left) has retired. The Labor ticket was decided by the Labor state conference in September. The Left's Nita Green will head the ticket, followed by the Right's Senator Chris Ketter and the Old Guard Right's Frank Gilbert.

    Senator Andrew Bartlett, who inherited the Greens seat from Larissa Waters in 2017 when she resigned over citizenship, resigned in early September, allowing Waters to return. The lead One Nation candidate will be former Senator Malcolm Roberts, who was ruled ineligible over citizenship. He will be trying to knock off his successor, Senator Fraser Anning, who joined Bob Katterís party after leaving One Nation, but later left the Katter party as well. Despite Anning's bid to outflank One Nation on the right with his "final solution" speech, he has little chance of re-election.

    In summary, the LNP and Labor will almost certainly win two seats each. Beyond that there are several possibilities. The fifth and sixth seats may go to One Nation and the Greens (probably the most likely prospect). But the One Nation seat may go to the Coalition, and the Greens seat may go to Labor Ė Labor won three seats in 2007 and could do so again if the Greens fare badly. Itís also possible, given the LNPís current poor polling, that the far-right parties could win two seats, with either Anning or Clive Palmer's new party sneaking a spot.

    Candidates in ballot-paper order:

    Group A: Rise Up Australia
    Graham Healy Lionel Henaway

    Group B: Pauline Hanson's One Nation
    Malcolm Roberts Steve Dickson (disendorsed)

    Group C: United Australia Party
    Clive Palmer Martin Brewster Yodie Batzke

    Group D: Liberal National Party
    Paul Scarr (Liberal) Susan McDonald (National) Gerard Rennick (Liberal) Senator Hon Ian Macdonald (Liberal)
    Amanda Camm (National) Nicole Tobin (Liberal)

    Group E: Involuntary Medication Objectors (Vaccination/Fluoride) Party
    Allona Lahn Adam Rowe

    Group F: Climate Action! Immigration Action! Accountable Politicians!
    Kris Bullen Robyn Stevenson

    Group G: Animal Justice Party
    Karagh-Mae Kelly Leah Coutts Belinda Hardy

    Group H: Australian Greens
    Senator Larissa Waters Navdeep Singh Johanna Kloot Raelene Ellis
    Miranda Bertram Kirsten Kennedy

    Group I: Fraser Anning's Conservative National Party
    Senator Fraser Anning Paul Taylor Mark Absolon Nancy Sandford Brad Cameron

    Group J: Australian Labor Party
    Nita Green Senator Chris Ketter Frank Gilbert Tania Major
    Stacey Schinnerl Christina Warry

    Group K: Independents for Climate Action Now
    Dr Andy Lewis Cornel Lokkers Gary Pead

    Group L: Australian Workers Party
    Gregory Bradley Kathleen Wellstead

    Group M: Australian Better Families
    Darren Caulfield Adam Finch Rod Fox

    Group N: Help End Marijuana Prohibition
    John Jiggens Frank Jordan

    Group O: Australian Conservatives
    Lyle Shelton Joanna Lindgren Kate Horan

    Group P: Labour DLP
    Lindsay Temple Sheila Vincent

    Group Q: Katter's Australian Party
    Joy Marriott Gregory Wallace Alan Webb

    Group R: Independent
    Hetty Johnston Sue Mureau

    Group S: The Great Australian Party
    Arjay Martin Tania Moohin

    Group T: Pirate Party
    Brandon Selic Miles Whiticker

    Group U:Sustainable Australia
    Cameron Murray Chris Simpson

    Group V: Love Australia or Leave
    Kim Vuga Gavin Wyatt

    Group W: Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
    Jeff Hodges Andrew Pope

    Group X: Independent
    Tony Moore Cartia Moore

    Group Y: Liberal Democratics
    Gabe Buckley Lloyd Russell

    Group Z: Citizens Electoral Council
    Jan Pakallus Danny Hope

    Debbie Lo-Dean Gary Sharpe Paul Larcombe Jane Hasler John Woodward
    Nicholas McArthur-Williams Hassan Ghulam Wayne Wharton Amanda Murphy Paul Stevenson

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