Psephos - Adam Carr's Election Archive

Psephos: Adam Carr's Election Archive
Australian federal election, 2025


The Senate

  • New South Wales
  • Victoria
  • Queensland
  • Western Australia
  • South Australia
  • Tasmania
  • Australian Capital Territory
  • Northern Territory
  • National outlook

    At the election due in 2025, the Senators elected for six-year terms at the 2019 election will face re-election. The four Territory Senators, who are elected for three-year terms, are also up for re-election.

    The Labor Party currently has 26 seats in the Senate, of whom 11 are up for re-election in 2025. The Liberal- National Coalition has 32 seats, with 17 up for re-election. (Both these figures include the Territory Senators.) The Greens have 12, with six up for re-election. There are currently six cross-bench Senators, of whom two are up for re-election. The Coalition thus needs to gain seven seats to win 39 seats, which is a majority. Labor needs to gain an impossible 13 seats (Labor has not had a majority in the Senate since 1951). But Labor and the Greens taken together have 37 seats, and need a gain of two seats for a majority.

    If the 2022 results were to be exactly repeated, Labor would gain seats from the Liberals in Queensland and Western Australia. The result (counting the Territory Senators) would therefore be Coalition 17, Labor 15, Greens six, One Nation one, plus Senator David Pocock (Ind, ACT), giving a total Senate position of Coalition 34, Labor 26, Greens 12, One Nation two, Lambie Network two, UAP one, Pocock one. (Theoretically, the UAP would win a second seat from the Liberals in Victoria, but this is unlikely.)*

    * These calculations do not include the changes in status of Senator Fatima Payman (WA), who was elected for Labor in 2022 but is now an independent, Senator Lidia Thorpe (Vic), who was elected as a Green in 2022 but is now an independent, Senator David Van (Vic) who was elected a Liberal in 2019 but was expelled from the Liberal Party in 2023, or Senator Tammy Tyrrell (Tas) who was elected in 2022 for the Jacqui Lambie Network but is now an independent.


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