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Psephos: Adam Carr's Election Archive
Victorian state election, 28 November 2026
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The Legislative Assembly
See all 88 seats in alphabetical order
See all 88 seats in pendulum order
The Victorian Legislative Assembly has 88 members, elected from single-member districts of approximately equal population by preferential voting.
At the state election of 26 November 2022, the Australian Labor Party led by Premier Daniel Andrews won 56 seats, a gain of one seat compared with the results in 2018. The Liberal Party led Matthew Guy won 19 seats, a loss of two, and the Nationals, led by Peter Walsh, won nine seats, a gain of three. The Victorian Greens won four seats, a gain of one. The two sitting independent members were defeated.
After the election Guy resigned as Liberal leader and was succeeded by John Pesutto. In December 2024 Pesutto resigned as a result of factional conflict in the Liberal Party. His successor, Brad Battin, made no impact and resigned in November 2025. He was succeeded by Jess Wilson, a first-term member.
Walsh resigned as Nationals leader in November 2024 and was succeeded by Danny O'Brien.
Andrews resigned as Premier in September 2023 and was succeeded by Jacinta Allan. In July 2026, following poor polls and a mounting corruption scandal, Allan resigned and was replaced by her deputy Ben Carroll.
The Greens member for Prahran resigned in November 2024, and the Liberals won the consequent by-election.
At the 2026 election Labor will have been in government for 12 years and will be seeking a fourth term. Labor has never won four successive elections in Victoria. The Liberal-National Coalition need to win 17 seats from Labor to gain a majority (or 16 if they retain Prahran). To do that they need a uniform swing of 8.0%. The last two times the Coalition defeated an incumbent Labor government, in 1992 and 2010, they gained a swing of just under 6.0%.
This guide was compiled before the recent surge in the polls for Pauline Hanson's One Nation. Seats are rated as "safe" or "marginal" in traditional two-party terms, but this cannot take into account the threat posed by One Nation in any given seat. Victoria has historically been One Nation's weakest state, and the party polled poorly in the Nepean by-election, but the South Australian election in March showed that One Nation can win seats even in areas outside its traditional base. This should not be overstated: One Nation won four regional seats in a House of 47, and while it polled well in many working-class seats, it didn't win any of them.
Legislative Assembly maps, showing results of 2022 election
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