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| Australian federal election, 2016
Division of Warringah, New South Wales
Northern Sydney: Balgowlah, Dee Why, Manly, Mosman
Sitting member: Hon Tony Abbott (Liberal), elected 1994
Enrolment at close of rolls: 102,711
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 15.4%
2016 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 15.3%
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Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Andrew Woodward
Australian Labor Party |
2. Marie Rowland
Nick Xenophon Team |
3. June Scifo
Christian Democrats |
4. Marc Giordano
Science Party |
5. Hon Tony Abbott
Liberal Party |
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6. Shea Caplice
The Arts Party |
7. James Mathison
Independent |
8. Clara Williams Roldan
Australian Greens |
9. Dr David Barrow
Independent |
10. Tony Backhouse
Independent |
2013 results
Statistics and history
Warringah was created in 1922, covering the eastern part of Sydney's North Shore, based on Manly. Subsequent redistributions have reduced the seat in size without changing its social or political character. It is one of the wealthiest electorates in Australia, with very high median income levels and a high proportion of people in professional occupations. It is also a ageing electorate, with a high proportion of over-65s and a relatively low proportion of families with dependent children. It has a very low proportion of dwellings being purchased, since most people either own their homes or live in flats.
Labor has never come close to winning Warringah, but the Manly area does have a history of support for independents, including Percy Spender, who won Warringah as an independent in 1937 before becoming a Cabinet minister under Menzies, and Peter McDonald, an independent state MP, who came second in Warringah in 2001.
Tony Abbott, Liberal MP for Warringah since 1994, was a journalist for The Bulletin and head of Australians for Constitutional Monarchy before his election. He was a protegee of Prime Minister John Howard and was a Cabinet minister from 2001. In December 2009 he resigned from the opposition front bench in protest at Malcolm Turnbull's agreement to support the Rudd Government's emission trading scheme. The caused a crisis in the Liberal Party which ended with Abbott seizing the leadership.
At the 2010 election Abbott performed well enough to force Labor into minority government, and his relentless methods of opposition helped him lead the Coalition to victory in 2013. As Prime Minister, however, his dogmatic style, harsh economic policies and quixotic actions such as restoring knighthoods led to a rapid decline in his standing with the public, reflected in poor polls. More importantly, the domineering behaviour of his chief of staff, Peta Credlin, alienated his senior colleagues. In September 2015 Turnbull succeeded in regaining the leadership, making Abbott the third successive PM to be deposed by their own party.
Abbott has rejected suggestions that he quit politics and will run in Warringah again in 2016. The Labor candidate is Andrew Woodward, owner of a communications consultancy on climate change and sustainability.
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Prospective pendulum, showing all candidates
State and territory maps, showing new boundaries
The thirty seats that will decide the election
Other seats of interest
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