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| Australian federal election, 2016
Division of Page, New South Wales
Northern New South Wales: Casino, Grafton, Lismore, Sapphire Beach
Sitting member: Kevin Hogan (Nationals), elected 2013
Enrolment at close of rolls: 117,317
2013 Nationals majority over Labor: 2.5%
2016 notional Nationals majority over Labor: 3.1%
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Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Kevin Hogan
The Nationals |
2. Mark Ellis
Liberal Democratic Party |
3. Anna Ludvik
Animal Justice Party |
4. Kudra Falla-Ricketts
Australian Greens |
5. Bethany McAlpine
Christian Democrats |
6. Janelle Saffin
Australian Labor Party |
2013 results
Statistics and history
Page was created in 1984 from parts of the federation electorates of Richmond and Cowper, and based on the regional centres of Grafton and Lismore.
It has one of the country's lowest levels of median family income, reflecting its economic base of farming and low-wage tourism jobs, plus its large
population of retired over-65s. Its ageing population is also shown by its low levels of families with dependent children and of dwellings being
purchased. These factors make Page more politically marginal than most rural seats are these days.
Labor's strongest area in Page is the city of Lismore, where Labor won most of the polling places in 2013, despite the swing to the Nationals. Grafton
and Casino are more marginal, while the Nationals dominate most, but not all, of the smaller rural centres.
Page's first member was Ian Robinson, a National Party veteran who had held Cowper since 1963. Like many country members, he stayed on too long, and in
1990 he was unexpectedly defeated by Labor's Harry Woods, who was greatly helped by the aftermath of the National Party's "Joh for Canberra" fiasco.
Woods hung on in 1993, but was predictably defeated in 1996 by the Nationals candidate, former state minister Ian Causley. Causley had reasonable
expectations of ministerial office in the Howard Government, but was disappointed, and retired in 2007. The seat was then won by Labor's Janelle Saffin,
a teacher and lawyer and former NSW MLC. Saffin was re-elected in 2010 but defeated by the Nationals in 2013.
Kevin Hogan, Nationals MP for Page since 2013, was a teacher in Casino before his election. He has also worked as a money market and bond trader and as
an investment officer for a superannuation fund. Saffin will again be the Labor candidate in 2016. The 2016 redistribution has removed the Labor-
inclined town of Ballina and added more rural areas to the south, increasing the Nationals majority from 2.5% to 3.1%. Hogan will also enjoy the advantage
of incumbency, but this will be partly offset by Saffin's continued recognition in the seat.
These maps are the property of Adam Carr and may not be reproduced without his permission.
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Prospective pendulum, showing all candidates
State and territory maps, showing new boundaries
The thirty seats that will decide the election
Other seats of interest
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