Australian federal election, 2016
Division of Cowper, New South Wales
Northern New South Wales: Coffs Harbour, Kempsey, Nambucca Heads, Port Macquarie
Sitting member: Hon Luke Hartsuyker (Nationals), elected 2001
Enrolment at close of rolls: 118,388
2013 Nationals majority over Labor: 11.7%
2016 notional Nationals majority over Labor: 13.2%

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Candidates in ballot-paper order:

1. Wayne Lawrence Christian Democrats	2. Michael Gough Citizens Electoral Council	3. Carol Vernon Australian Greens	4. Damian Wood Australian Labor Party	5. Rob Oakeshott Independent	6. Hon Luke Hartsuyker The Nationals	7. John Arkan Independent

2013 results

Statistics and history

Cowper has existed since Federation, at one time occupying virtually the whole North Coast of NSW, which in the early years of the Commonwealth was a remote and thinly settled area. Since 1949 it has been steadily cut back as the North Coast has grown rapidly, so that it now comprises little more than the tourism and retirement centres of Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie and a few adjacent rural areas: once one of the most rural seats in Australia, it now has only 7.1% of its workforce engaged in agriculture, while 8.5% work in tourism.

Cowper's large retired population means it has the 8th highest proportion of over-65s of any electorate, and this combined with its rural element give it the 2nd lowest median family income level of any electorate. The Nationals majority in Cowper is seldom very large, but both Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie are reliable for the Nationals. Labor support comes from some coastal towns, hippy colonies and small sawmilling towns.

Cowper was one of the birthplaces of the Country Party. Sir Earle Page, leader of the party from 1921 to 1939 and briefly Prime Minister in 1939, was member for Cowper from 1919 to 1961. His defeat in 1961 was one of the great upsets of Australian electoral history. After the Country Party regained the seat in 1963, it was held for 38 years by two backbenchers, Ian Robinson and Garry Nehl.

Luke Hartsuyker (pronounced Hartseeker), Nationals MP for Cowper since 2001, was an accountant and small business owner before his election. He was on the opposition frontbench from 2007 to 2013, and was a junior minister in the Abbott Government. He was dropped in February 2016 when Barnaby Joyce became Nationals Leader.

The 2016 redistribution has moved the seat sharply south, shedding everything north of Coffs Harbour to Page, and taking in Port Macquarie and its hinterland from Lyne. This has increased the Nationals majority to 13.2%. The Labor candidate in 2016 is Damian Woods, an emergency supervisor with Essential Energy.

Shortly before nominations closed, Rob Oakeshott, the former independent MP for Lyne, announced that he would contest Cowper, which now contains his home town of Port Macquarie. He will pose a serious threat to Hartsuyker only if he can poll well enough to come second and pick up Labor preferences. A poll in June suggested he had a good chance of doing this.

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