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| Australian federal election, 2016
Division of Bass, Tasmania
Northern Tasmania: George Town, Launceston, Newnham, Scottsdale
Sitting member: Andrew Nikolic (Liberal), elected 2013
Enrolment at close of rolls: 73,591
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.0%
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Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Terrill Riley-Gibson
Australian Greens |
2. Roy Ramage
Renewable Energy Party |
3. Ross Hart
Australian Labor Party |
4. Malcolm Beattie
Christian Democrats |
5. Andrew Nikolic
Liberal Party |
2013 results
Statistics and history
Bass has existed since Tasmania was first divided into electorates in 1903, and has always consisted of the city of Launceston and some surrounding
rural areas - it is one of the least changed of the federation seats. The seat has always been politically marginal and has frequently changed hands.
Only two of its 14 previous members have retired undefeated. Its relatively low income level, which should tip it towards Labor, is offset by its very
low level of people born in non English speaking countries.
Lance Barnard won Bass in 1954 and was Deputy Prime Minister in the Whitlam government. His successor Kevin Newman was a minister in the Fraser government
(and was the father of Qld Premier Campbell Newman). Warwick Smith held the seat twice and was a minister in the Howard government, before being defeated
by Michelle O'Byrne in 1998. In 2004 Mark Latham's anti-logging forestry policy cost Labor the seat. Michael Ferguson, who defeated O'Byrne, was an
outspoken member, but his high profile was not enough to save him from the anti-government swing in 2007, when he was defeated by Jodie Campbell.
Campbell did not enjoy being an MP and retired in 2010, when Geoff Lyons retained Bass for Labor. He was in turn defeated in the large swing against Labor
that swept Tasmania in 2013.
Andrew Nikolic, Liberal MP for Bass since 2013, was born in Serbia and came to Australia as a child. He had a distinguished career in the Australian Army,
retiring as a Brigadier, and as a public servant in the Department of Defence. He is currently chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Intelligence and
Security.
After a long period of dominance of state politics, Labor is at a low ebb in Tasmania, and this will make it hard for Labor to regain federal seats in
2016. At the 2014 state election, Labor polled only 27.7% of the primary vote in Bass, while the Liberals polled 50%. Nikolic's majority of 4.1% will be
improved for him by three years as an incumbent. Labor can draw some encouragement from the fact that the last three members for Bass have served only
one term. Labor's candidate will be Ross Hart, a Launceston lawyer.
These maps are the property of Adam Carr and may not be reproduced without his permission.
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Prospective pendulum, showing all candidates
State and territory maps, showing new boundaries
The thirty seats that will decide the election
Other seats of interest
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