QUEENSLAND LEGISLATIVE ELECTION OF 31 JANUARY 2015 ======================================================================================== Source: Election Commission of Queensland PROSPECTIVE PENDULUM: SEATS IN ORDER OF STRENGTH FOR LIBERAL NATIONAL PARTY ======================================================================================== In seats where minor parties or independents came second in 2012, estimated 2-party majorities are given, as calculated by Antony Green at the ABC Elections website. District LNP candidate ALP candidate Margin ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIBERAL-NATIONAL PARTY SEATS ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 01 SOUTHERN DOWNS Hon Lawrence Springborg * Louise Ryan 29.8 est 02 SURFERS PARADISE Hon John-Paul Langbroek * Josh Blundell-Thornton 29.5 03 WARREGO Ann Leahy + Mark O'Brien 28.1 est 04 CONDAMINE Pat Weir + Brendon Huybregts 26.8 est 05 KAWANA Hon Jarrod Bleijie * Mark Moss 26.3 06 BUDERIM Steve Dickson * Elaine Hughes 26.0 07 GYMPIE Tony Perrett + Stephen Meredith 26.0 est 08 MERMAID BEACH Ray Stevens * Gary Pead 26.0 09 MUDGEERABA Ros Bates * Georgi Leader 25.9 10 GREGORY Lachlan Millar Cheryl Thompson 25.5 11 NOOSA Hon Glen Elmes * Mark Denham 25.5 est 12 NANANGO Deb Frecklington * Liz Hollens-Riley 24.7 est 13 CALLIDE Hon Jeff Seeney * Graeme Martin 24.5 est 14 MOGGILL Christian Rowan + Louise Pink 23.9 15 COOMERA Michael Crandon * Brett McCreadie 23.3 16 BEAUDESERT Jon Krause * Kay Hohenhaus 22.3 est 17 ASPLEY Hon Tracy Davis * Gayle Dallaston 21.8 18 HERVEY BAY Ted Sorensen * Tony Gubbins 21.7 19 TOOWOOMBA SOUTH Hon John McVeigh * Graham Storey 21.6 20 CALOUNDRA Hon Mark McArdle * Jason Hunt 21.2 21 REDLANDS Matt McEachan + Deb Kellie 21.1 22 MAROOCHYDORE Hon Fiona Simpson * Bill Gissane 20.9 23 CLAYFIELD Hon Tim Nicholls * John Martin 20.6 24 GLASS HOUSE Hon Andrew Powell * Brent Hampstead 20.4 25 CURRUMBIN Hon Jann Stuckey * Ashley Wain 20.2 26 INDOOROOPILLY Hon Scott Emerson * Chris Horacek 19.6 27 MARYBOROUGH Anne Maddern * Bruce Saunders 19.2 est 28 GAVEN Sid Cramp + Dr Michael Riordon 19.1 *1 29 HINCHINBROOK Hon Andrew Cripps * Jesse Trecco-Alexander 18.9 est 30 LOCKYER Ian Rickuss * Steve Leese 18.8 est 31 BUNDABERG Hon Jack Dempsey * Leanne Donaldson 18.2 32 CLEVELAND Mark Robinson * Tracey Huges 18.1 33 BURDEKIN Rosemary Menekns * Angela Zyla 17.4 est 34 BURNETT Stephen Bennett * Brian Mustill 17.4 est 35 MOUNT OMMANEY Tarnya Smith * Jessica Pugh 16.5 36 SPRINGWOOD John Grant * Mick de Brenni 15.4 37 SOUTHPORT Rob Molhoek * Rowan Holzberger 14.7 38 CHATSWORTH Steve Minnikin * Paul Keene 14.1 39 PINE RIVERS Seath Holswich * Nikki Boyd 13.7 40 EVERTON Tim Mander * Jeff Frew 13.2 < swing required for ALP majority: 12.4% 41 KALLANGUR Trevor Ruthenberg * Shane King 12.4 42 PUMICESTONE Lisa France * Rick Williams 12.1 43 ALBERT Mark Boothman * Melissa McMahon 11.9 44 BROADWATER Verity Barton * Penny Toland 11.3 < swing needed for loss of LNP majority: 11.3% 45 MIRANI John Kerslake + Jim Pearce 11.2 46 BURLEIGH Michael Hart * Gail Hislop 11.1 47 MANSFIELD Hon Ian Walker * Adam Obeid 11.1 48 WHITSUNDAY Jason Costigan * Bronwyn Taha 10.7 49 MUNDINGBURRA Hon David Crisafulli* Coralee O'Rourke 10.2 50 SUNNYBANK Mark Stewart* Peter Russo 10.2 51 REDCLIFFE Kerri-Anne Dooley + Yvette D'Ath *2 10.1 52 STRETTON Freya Ostapovitch * Duncan Pegg 09.6 53 BARRON RIVER Michael Trout * Craig Crawford 09.5 54 FERNY GROVE Dale Shuttleworth * Mark Furner 09.5 55 MURRUMBA Reg Gulley * Chris Whiting 09.5 56 TOOWOOMBA NORTH Trevor Watts * Hon Kerry Shine 09.5 57 ALGESTER Anthony Shorten * Leeanne Enoch 09.2 58 CAIRNS Gavin King * Rob Pyne 08.9 59 IPSWICH WEST Sean Choat * Jim Madden 07.2 60 STAFFORD Bob Andersen + Dr Anthony Lynham *3 07.1 61 THURINGOWA Sam Cox * Aaron Harper 06.7 est 62 KEPPEL Bruce Young * Brittany Lauga 06.4 63 ASHGROVE Hon Campbell Newman * Hon Kate Jones 05.7 64 MORAYFIELD Darren Grimwade * Mark Ryan 05.6 65 MOUNT COOT-THA Saxon Rice * Steven Miles 05.4 66 BRISBANE CENTRAL Robert Cavallucci * Grace Grace 04.9 67 LOGAN Michael Pucci * Linus Power 04.8 68 TOWNSVILLE John Hathaway * Scott Stewart 04.8 69 IPSWICH Ian Berry * Jennifer Howard 04.2 70 CAPALABA Steve Davies * Don Brown 03.7 71 COOK David Kempton * Billy Gordon 03.4 72 NUDGEE Jason Woodforth * Leanne Linard 03.1 73 SANDGATE Kerry Millard * Hon Stirling Hinchliffe 02.9 74 GREENSLOPES Ian Kaye * Joe Kelly 02.5 75 LYTTON Neil Symes * Joanne Pease 01.6 76 YEERONGPILLY Leila Abukar + Mark Bailey 01.4 *4 77 WATERFORD Mike Latter * Shannon Fentiman 01.0 78 BULIMBA Aaron Dillaway * Di Farmer 00.1 ALP SEATS ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 79 MACKAY Deon Attard Julianne Gilbert + 00.5 80 MULGRAVE Robyn Quick Hon Curtis Pitt * 01.2 81 BUNDAMBA Stephen Fenton Jo-Ann Miller * 01.8 82 ROCKHAMPTON Bridie Luva Bill Byrne * 04.0 83 SOUTH BRISBANE Fiona Ward Jackie Trad * 04.7 84 WOODRIDGE Steve Viliamu Hon Cameron Dick + 05.8 85 INALA Adam Hannant Hon Annastacia Palaszczuk * 06.9 OTHER SEATS ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 86 GLADSTONE *5 Michael Duggan Glenn Butcher 87 NICKLIN *6 Matt Trace Justin Raethel 88 DALRYMPLE *7 Liz Schmidt Leanne Kettleton 89 MOUNT ISA *8 John Wharton Simon Tayler *1 Held by Alex Douglas, elected as LNP in 2012 but now an independent. *2 Labor won Redcliffe at a February 2014 by-election. *3 Labor won Stafford at a July 2014 by-election. *4 Held by Carl Judge, elected as LNP in 2012 but now an independent. *5 The sitting independent member, Liz Cunningham, is retiring. *6 The sitting member is Peter Wellington, an independent. *7 The sitting member is Shane Knuth, Katter's Australian Party. *8 The sitting member is Rob Katter, Katter's Australian Party. Labor won 7 seats in 2012, and won 2 at by-elections in 2014. Labor therefore needs to win an additional 36 seats. That will require winning every LNP seat on the pendulum up to Kallangur, which needs a swing of 12.4%. If Labor wins Gladstone following Liz Cunningham's retirement, that will reduce the swing required to 12.1%. Assuming the other three cross-benchers are re-elected, a uniform swing of between 11.3 and 12.4% would produce a hung parliament.