| |
The 24 November election saw the Australian people deliver a decisive verdict on John Howard's eleven-year-old
Liberal-National coalition government. The Australian Labor Party, led by Kevin Rudd, gained a two-party swing of
6.1% (on current counting), and won around 29 seats (a number are still in doubt). This would give Labor a margin
of 89 to 59 in the House of Representatives, with two independents.
The biggest swing, 8.3%, was in Queensland (Kevin Rudd's home state), which brought Labor a massive
haul of 12 seats. A 7.1% swing in South Australia brought three seats, and a fourth is extremely close.
A 6.5% swing in NSW brought Labor seven seats, including the Prime Minister's seat of Bennelong. In
Victoria a 5.8% swing gained four seats, although two of these are extremely close. In Western
Australia Labor gained a 2.4% swing, but gained only one seat while losing one of its own. A second Labor
seat is at risk. A 2.1% swing in Tasmania gained the two Liberal seats there. A 4.2% swing in the
Northern Territory appears to have gained the one Liberal seat there.
John Howard heads the list of Coalition casualties, almost certainly defeated in Bennelong by Maxine
McKew after 33 years as an MP. A Cabinet colleague, Mal Brough, unexpectedly lost his Queensland seat
of Longman. Three junior ministers, Jim Lloyd, Gary Nairn and Peter Dutton, were also defeated. Two others, Fran
Bailey and Christopher Pyne, are in extremely close contests. The Nationals lost a parliamentary
secretary, De-Anne Kelly.
Most of the Labor gains were typical marginal seats - lower-income suburban or regional seats, most of which
Labor has held before. The “doctors wives” failed to deliver, and the Liberals retained Wentworth, North Sydney,
Ryan and Boothby (not to mention Kooyong, Goldstein and other improbably suggested gains). The “election night
shockers” turned out to be Dawson, Longman and Dickson in Queensland rather than upper-class city seats.
(John Howard's defeat in Bennelong was hardly a shock.) This tells us that the swing was driven largely
by "it's time" sentiment, WorkChoices, and Queensland pride. Climate change was not the big middle-class
vote-flipper many expected.
In October I predicted a 5% swing and 20 Labor gains. I was close to the mark with the swing, but a bit
conservative in terms of seats. Of the 20 seats I predicted as Labor gains, I was wrong only about Stirling
(La Trobe is too close to call). I failed to predict nine Labor gains: Robertson in NSW, Deakin in Victoria,
and Bowman, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Leichhardt, Longman and Petrie in Queensland (not all of which are yet
"in the bag"). I also failed to predict that Labor would lose Cowan or Swan (which is too close to call).
In the Senate, Labor appears to have picked up four seats, two from the Democrats, one from the Greens and one
from the Liberals. The Coalition appears to have lost two seats, one to Labor and one to an independent. The
Greens appear to have picked up two seats, both from the Democrats, while losing a seat to Labor.
The Democrats have lost their four seats, two to Labor and two to the Greens. The new Senate from July next year
will therefore be Coalition 37, Labor 32, Greens five, Family First one and independent one. There is still a
chance that the Greens will pick up another seat from the Coalition.
Minor parties had a bad night. The Greens, as usual victims of their own hype, gained only small
increases. Only in the seat of Melbourne did they give Labor a serious scare. In the Senate they lost
one Senator while gaining two (possibly three). They failed to pick up the ACT Senate seat despite much
optimistic talk. Family First failed to make gains despite have a sitting Senator. The Democrats were
wiped out and are clearly finished as a serious party. The two sitting independent members were re-elected,
but several other highly-fancied independents failed to get close.
In his dignified concession speech, John Howard named his long-suffering deputy, Peter Costello, as his
obvious successor. On the following day, however, Costello announced that he was quitting politics,
apparently accepting the likelihood that the Coalition faces a long spell in opposition. The most
likely Liberal leader now seems to be Malcolm Turnbull, who had a remarkable personal victory in
his Sydney seat.
The Labor Caucus will meet on Thursday and the new ministry will be announced and sworn in shortly
after.
|
|