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Updated 1 December 2007
The 24 November election saw the Australian people deliver a decisive verdict on John Howard's eleven-year-old
Liberal-National coalition government. The Australian Labor Party, led by Kevin Rudd, gained a two-party swing of
5.6% (on current counting), and won around 24 seats (a number are still in doubt). This would give Labor a margin
of 84 to 64 in the House of Representatives, with two independents.
The biggest swing, 7.9%, was in Queensland (Kevin Rudd's home state), which brought Labor a
haul of 10 to 12 seats. A 6.8% swing in South Australia brought three seats.
A 6.2% swing in NSW brought Labor 6 or 7 seats, including the Prime Minister's seat of Bennelong. In
Victoria a 5.1% swing gained two seats. In Western
Australia Labor gained a 2.3% swing, but gained only one seat while losing one of its own. A second Labor
seat is at risk. A 2.0% swing in Tasmania gained the two Liberal seats there. A 3.7% swing in the
Northern Territory appears to have gained the one Liberal seat there.
John Howard heads the list of Coalition casualties, defeated in Bennelong by Maxine
McKew after 33 years as an MP. A Cabinet colleague, Mal Brough, unexpectedly lost his Queensland seat
of Longman. Two junior ministers, Jim Lloyd and Gary Nairn, were also defeated. Three others, Fran
Bailey, Peter Dutton and Christopher Pyne, are in extremely close contests, although all are expected to
survive. The Nationals lost a parliamentary
secretary, De-Anne Kelly.
Most of the Labor gains were typical marginal seats - lower-income suburban or regional seats, most of which
Labor has held before. The "doctors' wives" failed to deliver, and the Liberals retained Wentworth, North Sydney,
Ryan and Boothby (not to mention Kooyong, Goldstein and other improbably suggested gains). The “election night
shockers” turned out to be Dawson and Longman in Queensland rather than upper-class city seats.
(John Howard's defeat in Bennelong was hardly a shock.) This tells us that the swing was driven largely
by "it's time" sentiment, WorkChoices, and Queensland pride. Climate change was not the big middle-class
vote-flipper many expected.
In October I predicted a 5% swing and 20 Labor gains. I was close to the mark with the swing, but a bit
conservative in terms of seats. Of the 20 seats I predicted as Labor gains, I was wrong only about Stirling and
La Trobe. I failed to predict eight Labor gains: Robertson in NSW, Deakin in Victoria,
and Bowman, Dawson, Flynn, Leichhardt, Longman and Petrie in Queensland (not all of which are yet
"in the bag"). I also failed to predict that Labor would lose Cowan or Swan (which is too close to call).
In the Senate, Labor has picked up four seats, two from the Democrats, one from the Greens and one
from the Liberals. The Coalition has lost two seats, one to Labor and one to an independent. The
Greens have picked up two seats, both from the Democrats, while losing a seat to Labor.
The Democrats have lost their four seats, two to Labor and two to the Greens. The new Senate from July next year
will therefore be Coalition 37, Labor 32, Greens five, Family First one and independent one. There is still a
chance that the Greens will pick up another seat from the Coalition.
Minor parties had a bad night. The Greens, as usual victims of their own hype, gained only small
increases in their vote. Only in the seat of Melbourne did they give Labor a serious scare. In the Senate they lost
one Senator while gaining two (possibly three). They failed to pick up the ACT Senate seat despite much
optimistic talk. Family First went backwards everywhere except Victoria, despite have a sitting Senator. The Democrats were
wiped out and are clearly finished as a serious party. The two sitting independent members were re-elected,
but several other highly-fancied independents failed to get close.
In his dignified concession speech, John Howard named his long-suffering deputy, Peter Costello, as his
obvious successor. On the following day, however, Costello announced that he was quitting politics,
apparently accepting the likelihood that the Coalition faces a long spell in opposition. On the Thursday
after the election Dr Brendan Nelson was elected Liberal leader, defeating Malcolm Turnbull, who had a remarkable
personal victory in
his Sydney seat.
The Labor Caucus met on Thursday and the new ministry was announced shortly after. It will be sworn in on Monday.
Julia Gillard will take both Industrial Relations and Education. Wayne Swan will be Treasurer and Stephen Smith
will be Foreign Minister.
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