COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA LEGISLATIVE ELECTION OF 21 AUGUST 2010 =============================================================================================== HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES =============================================================================================== ELECTION PENDULUM FOR THE 2013 ELECTION =============================================================================================== In seats where the Greens came first or second (Batman, Grayndler and Melbourne) I have given the notional Labor majority over the Coalition, with the actual Labor-Green majority in brackets. Division State Margin Sitting member ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Very strong Labor (16% plus) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 001 Batman Vic 24.8 Hon Martin Ferguson (ALP/Green 07.9) (retiring) 002 Gellibrand Vic 24.1 Hon Nicola Roxon (retiring) 003 Gorton Vic 23.6 Hon Brendan O’Connor 004 Wills Vic 23.5 Hon Kelvin Thompson 005 Melbourne Vic 23.3 Dr Adam Bandt (Greens) (Green/ALP 06.0) 006 Lalor Vic 22.1 Hon Julia Gillard (retiring) 007 Port Adelaide SA 21.0 Hon Mark Butler 008 Grayndler NSW 20.6 Hon Anthony Albanese (ALP/Green 04.2) 009 Scullin Vic 20.6 Hon Harry Jenkins (retiring) 010 Calwell Vic 20.0 Maria Vamvakinou 011 Maribyrnong Vic 17.5 Hon Bill Shorten 012 Sydney NSW 17.1 Hon Tanya Plibersek Strong Labor (12-16%) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 013 Corio Vic 13.5 Hon Richard Marles 014 Kingston SA 14.5 Hon Amanda Rishworth 015 Fraser ACT 14.2 Hon Dr Andrew Leigh 016 Hotham Vic 14.0 Hon Simon Crean (retiring) 017 Cunningham NSW 13.2 Hon Sharon Bird 018 Holt Vic 14.0 Hon Anthony Byrne 019 Shortland NSW 12.9 Jill Hall 020 Charlton NSW 12.7 Hon Greg Combet (retiring) 021 Hunter NSW 12.5 Hon Joel Fitzgibbon 022 Newcastle NSW 12.5 Sharon Grierson (retiring) 023 Chifley NSW 12.3 Ed Husic 024 Lyons Tas 12.3 Hon Dick Adams 025 Blaxland NSW 12.2 Hon Jason Clare 026 Throsby NSW 12.1 Stephen Jones 027 Makin SA 12.0 Tony Zappia Fairly strong Labor (8-12%) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 028 Ballarat Vic 11.7 Hon Catherine King 029 Jagajaga Vic 11.1 Hon Jenny Macklin 030 Franklin Tas 10.8 Hon Julie Collins 031 Isaacs Vic 10.4 Hon Mark Dreyfus 032 Wakefield SA 10.5 Nick Champion 033 Bendigo Vic 09.4 Steve Gibbons (retiring) 034 Canberra ACT 09.2 Gai Brodtmann 035 McEwen Vic 09.2 Rob Mitchell 036 Watson NSW 09.1 Hon Tony Burke 037 Fowler NSW 08.8 Chris Hayes 038 Griffith Qld 08.5 Hon Kevin Rudd Weak Labor (4-8%) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 039 Melbourne Ports Vic 07.9 Hon Michael Danby 040 McMahon NSW 07.8 Hon Chris Bowen 041 Bruce Vic 07.7 Hon Alan Griffin 042 Adelaide SA 07.5 Hon Kate Ellis 043 Braddon Tas 07.5 Hon Sid Sidebottom 044 Richmond NSW 07.0 Hon Justine Elliott 045 Barton NSW 06.9 Hon Robert McClelland (retiring) 046 Werriwa NSW 06.8 Hon Laurie Ferguson 047 Bass Tas 06.7 Geoff Lyons 048 Hindmarsh SA 06.1 Steve Georganas 049 Perth WA 05.9 Hon Stephen Smith (retiring) 050 Chisholm Vic 05.8 Hon Anna Burke 051 Oxley Qld 05.8 Hon Bernie Ripoll 052 Fremantle WA 05.7 Hon Melissa Parke 053 Rankin Qld 05.4 Hon Dr Craig Emerson (retiring) 054 Kingsford Smith NSW 05.2 Hon Peter Garrett (retiring) 055 Dobell NSW 05.1 Craig Thomson (Ind) 056 Parramatta NSW 04.4 Julie Owens 057 Blair Qld 04.2 Hon Shayne Neumann 058 Eden-Monaro NSW 04.2 Hon Dr Mike Kelly 059 Page NSW 04.2 Janelle Saffin Very weak Labor (0-4%) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 060 Capricornia Qld 03.7 Kirsten Livermore (retiring) 061 Lingiari NT 03.7 Hon Warren Snowdon 062 Brand WA 03.3 Hon Gary Gray 063 Lilley Qld 03.2 Hon Wayne Swan 064 Reid NSW 02.7 Hon John Murphy 065 Petrie Qld 02.5 Hon Yvette D’Ath 066 La Trobe Vic 01.7 Laura Smyth 067 Banks NSW 01.5 Darryl Melham 068 Lindsay NSW 01.1 Hon David Bradbury 069 Moreton Qld 01.1 Graham Perrett 070 Robertson NSW 01.0 Deb O’Neill 071 Greenway NSW 00.9 Michelle Rowland 072 Deakin Vic 00.6 Mike Symon 073 Corangamite Vic 00.3 Darren Cheeseman =============================================================================================== Very weak Coalition (0-4%) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 074 Boothby SA 00.6 Dr Andrew Southcott 075 Hasluck WA 00.6 Ken Wyatt 076 Aston Vic 00.7 Alan Tudge 077 Dunkley Vic 01.1 Hon Bruce Billson 078 Brisbane Qld 01.1 Hon Terese Gambaro 079 Macquarie NSW 01.3 Louise Markus 080 Forde Qld 01.6 Bert van Manen 081 Solomon NT 01.8 Natasha Griggs (CLP) 082 Casey Vic 01.9 Hon Tony Smith 083 Longman Qld 01.9 Wyatt Roy 084 Canning WA 02.2 Don Randall 085 Herbert Qld 02.2 Ewen Jones 086 Dawson Qld 02.4 George Christensen (Nat) 087 Swan WA 02.5 Steve Irons 088 Bonner Qld 02.8 Ross Vasta 089 Macarthur NSW 03.0 Russell Matheson 090 Bennelong NSW 03.1 John Alexander 091 Flynn Qld 03.6 Ken O’Dowd (Nat) 092 Sturt SA 03.6 Hon Christopher Pyne Weak Coalition (4-8%) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 093 Fisher Qld 04.1 Hon Peter Slipper (Ind) (retiring) 094 McMillan Vic 04.2 Russell Broadbent 095 Leichhardt Qld 04.6 Hon Warren Entsch 096 Dickson Qld 05.1 Hon Peter Dutton 097 Hughes NSW 05.2 Craig Kelly 098 Gilmore NSW 05.3 Joanna Gash (retiring) 099 Paterson NSW 05.3 Hon Bob Baldwin 100 Higgins Vic 05.4 Kelly O’Dwyer 101 Stirling WA 05.6 Michael Keenan 102 Wannon Vic 05.7 Dan Tehan 103 Goldstein Vic 06.0 Hon Andrew Robb 104 Cowan WA 06.3 Luke Simpkins 105 Fairfax Qld 07.0 Hon Alex Somlyay (retiring) 106 Ryan Qld 07.2 Jane Prentice 107 Mayo SA 07.3 Jamie Briggs 108 Kooyong Vic 07.5 Josh Frydenberg Fairly strong Coalition (8-12%) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 109 Forrest WA 08.7 Nola Marino 110 Hume NSW 08.7 Alby Schultz (retiring) 111 Menzies Vic 08.7 Hon Kevin Andrews 112 Pearce WA 08.9 Hon Judi Moylan (retiring) 113 Indi Vic 09.0 Sophie Mirabella 114 Flinders Vic 09.1 Hon Greg Hunt 115 Cowper NSW 09.3 Luke Hartsuyker (Nat) 116 Wright Qld 10.2 Scott Buchholtz (Nat) 117 McPherson Qld 10.3 Karen Andrews 118 Bowman Qld 10.4 Dr Andrew Laming 119 Hinkler Qld 10.4 Paul Neville (Nat) (retiring) 120 Calare NSW 10.7 Hon John Cobb (Nat) 121 Grey SA 11.2 Rowan Ramsay 122 Moore WA 11.2 Dr Mal Washer (retiring) 123 Gippsland Vic 11.5 Darren Chester (Nat) Strong Coalition (12-16%) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 124 Tangney WA 12.3 Dr Dennis Jensen 125 Cook NSW 12.7 Scott Morrison 126 Barker SA 13.0 Patrick Secker (retiring) 127 Warringah NSW 13.1 Hon Tony Abbott 128 Durack WA 13.7 Barry Haase (retiring) 129 North Sydney NSW 14.1 Hon Joe Hockey 130 Fadden Qld 14.2 Stuart Robert 131 Farrer NSW 14.5 Hon Sussan Ley 132 Wentworth NSW 14.9 Hon Malcolm Turnbull 133 Wide Bay Qld 15.6 Hon Warren Truss (Nat) 134 Mackellar NSW 15.7 Hon Bronwyn Bishop Very strong Coalition (16% plus) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 135 Berowra NSW 16.2 Hon Philip Ruddock 136 Curtin WA 16.2 Hon Julie Bishop 137 Mitchell NSW 17.2 Alex Hawke 138 Moncrieff Qld 17.5 Steve Ciobo 139 Riverina NSW 18.1 Michael McCormack (Nat) 140 Bradfield NSW 18.2 Paul Fletcher 141 Groom Qld 18.5 Hon Ian Macfarlane 142 Parkes NSW 18.9 Mark Coulton (Nat) 143 Murray Vic 19.6 Hon Dr Sharman Stone 144 Maranoa Qld 22.9 Hon Bruce Scott (Nat) 145 O'Connor WA 23.0 Tony Crook (Nat) (Nat/Lib 03.6) (retiring) 146 Mallee Vic 23.3 John Forrest (Nat) (retiring) Independent seats ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 147 Denison Tas Andrew Wilkie (Ind/ALP 01.2) 148 Kennedy Qld Hon Bob Katter (Ind/Nat 18.3) 149 Lyne NSW Rob Oakeshott (Ind/Nat 12.7) (retiring) 150 New England NSW Tony Windsor (Ind/Nat 21.5) (retiring)